Tuesday, November 14, 2006

 

CA-50: Votes not yet counted: Update

(Blogger isn't letting me edit the previous post, so I'll start a new one.)

The number of uncounted votes county-wide is down to 60,000, and Bilbray now leads Busby by 20,913 votes. It ain't over until the votes are actually counted (or at least until the margin exceeds the number of uncounted votes in the district), but it's not looking good.

By the way, back when all ballots were on paper, it didn't take this long to count the votes. Have they forgotten how to count votes? Accuracy is much more important than speed, but what's taking them so long?

UPDATE: According to the official site, the number of uncounted votes county-wide is down to 18,000, and Bilbray's lead over Busby is 20,792. If those figures are correct, and the votes counted so far have been counted correctly, then that's it.

Busby's web page still says:
As I promised my supporters, I will respect every voter’s right to have their vote counted before making any final statements about the election.
but it hasn't been updated in a while; don't know whether she's made any official statement.

Still Francine Busby deserves congratulations for getting as much as 43.54% of the vote in such a heavily Republican district, and for being part of the battle that's finally ending one-party government. If nothing else, the Republicans had to spend money in this race that they would have liked to be able to spend elsewhere. See you in two years (if not sooner).

Sunday, November 12, 2006

 

CA-50: Votes not yet counted

The official election results for San Diego County are at www.sdvote.com. (It forwards to a page under www.sdcounty.ca.gov.)

At the moment, the results page says:
There are approximately 110000 Absentee / Provisional ballots still to be counted
It's been nearly a week since the election, and there are still 110,000 votes not counted. It looks like 657,000 votes have been counted so far (judging by the total votes for Governor and Senator), so about 14% of the votes haven't been counted yet.

Now let's look at the 50th Congressional District, which is entirely within San Diego County. The total vote count for the district is 29% of the total for the county (ignoring the possibility of undervotes, i.e., voters who voted for Governor or Senator but didn't bother to vote for a Representative). So assuming the uncounted votes are evenly distributed, there should be about 32,000 votes that haven't yet been counted in the CA-50 race. (Probably including mine and my wife's, by the way; grrrr.)

The posted results are:
  • Bilbray (R) 101967, 53.52%
  • Busby (D) 82175, 43.13%
  • King (Lib) 3529, 1.85%
  • Clark (P/F) 2858, 1.50%
but it's really more like this:
  • Bilbray (R) 101967, 45.8%
  • Busby (D) 82175, 36.9%
  • NOT YET COUNTED 32000, 14.4%
  • King (Lib) 3529, 1.59%
  • Clark (P/F) 2858, 1.28%
(These numbers are approximate, and they depend on a number of assumptions -- not the least of which is that I haven't made any arithmetic errors.)

Busby is still nearly 20,000 votes behind Bilbray. How likely is it that she can catch up when the remaining 110,000 votes are finally counted? Probably not very; the 50th is a heavily Republican district. But then again, a lot of the absentee and provisional ballots are bound to be from voters who don't trust the new Diebold touchscreen voting machines, and I'll bet they lean more Democratic than the district as a whole.

UPDATE: Francine Busby has not conceded:
As I promised my supporters, I will respect every voter’s right to have their vote counted before making any final statements about the election.
UPDATE 2: The number of uncounted votes county-wide is down to 60,000, and Bilbray now leads Busby by 20,913 votes. It ain't over until the votes are actually counted (or at least until the margin exceeds the number of uncounted votes in the district), but it's not looking good.

By the way, back when all ballots were on paper, it didn't take this long to count the votes. Have they forgotten how to count votes? Accuracy is much more important than speed, but what's taking them so long?

Thursday, November 09, 2006

 

Last chance appointments

In my previous post, I said that Robert Gates could be Bush's last chance to push a major appointment through a Republican Senate. That may not be true.

First of all, he's re-appointed John Bolton as the US Ambassador to the UN. (That's likely to fail.)

But something else occurs to me. When Bush lyingly declared that Rumsfeld would stay through the end of his administration, he said the same thing about Cheney. Is Cheney next to go?

There are a number of considerations here. First, Bush has no authority to fire Cheney. But the VP has no Constitutional powers other than presiding over the Senate (and voting only to break a tie), and succeeding the President, and Bush could theoretically revoke all of Cheney's delegated authority. (That's relevant only if Bush wants Cheney out and Cheney wants to stay.) But it could be advantageous to the Republicans to have a sitting Vice President as Bush's heir apparent for 2008.

Cheney apparently didn't want Rumsfeld to leave; Bush overruled him. (Source: Keith Olbermann.)

If Cheney is going to leave, it would make sense for him to do so soon, so Bush still has a Republican Congress to approve his replacement. It would be seen as the blatantly political maneuver, but that rarely stops this President.

Or Cheney might just hold on to the bitter end, either with or without Bush's consent.

I have no predictions here, just some ramblings.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

 

Robert Gates replacing Rumsfeld

Robert Gates, Bush's choice to replace Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense, is probably Bush's last opportunity to push a major appointment through a Republican Senate.

But there are enough Democrats in the Senate to bring up Gates's interesting history, which apparently includes manipulation of intelligence information and probable involvement in the Iran-Contra scandal. (Thanks to one of my Loyal Readers for bringing this to my attention; hi, Sis!)

 

Rumsfeld resigns

Bye-bye.

Incidentally, President Bush recently stated in no uncertain terms that Rumsfeld would be staying on. Here's what he says now:
Q Thank you, Mr. President. Last week you told us that Secretary Rumsfeld will be staying on. Why is the timing right now for this, and how much does it have to do with the election results?

THE PRESIDENT: Right. No, you and Hunt and Keil came in the Oval Office, and Hunt asked me the question one week before the campaign, and basically it was, are you going to do something about Rumsfeld and the Vice President? And my answer was, they're going to stay on. And the reason why is I didn't want to inject a major decision about this war in the final days of a campaign. And so the only way to answer that question and to get you on to another question was to give you that answer.
So the President has admitted that he lied to the American people for political purposes. This is nothing really new, but we don't often see such an explicit admission.

Incidentally, the above photo of Donald Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam Hussein was taken in December, 1983. Saddam has been sentenced to death for a massacre in Dujail in July, 1982.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

 

Vote

This is election day. Vote. This one is important. One-party rule has been hurting this country. Today is our chance to start fixing it.

UPDATE: Jim Macdonald has good advice at Making Light.

UPDATE 2: Ok, we voted. Let's hope our votes are actually counted. (I wish we had some purple ink.)

UPDATE 3: Democrats have taken back the House and probably the Senate. Whoo hoo!

Saturday, November 04, 2006

 

Purple Fingers

Here's a thought. After you vote next Tuesday, dye your middle finger purple.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

 

But seriously ...

But seriously, John Kerry's botched joke, the wingnuts' reaction to it, and his reaction to their reaction shouldn't be the point.

Here's the point. The Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress. The President has gotten thousands of Americans killed in Iraq, in an unjustifiable war that has not achieved its goals (and will not, as long as this band of incompetents is in charge of it). Bush has repeatedly violated the law, the Constitution, and his oath of office, and the Republican Congress has let him get away with it, even to the point of changing the law to make his illegal actions legal.

Here's the point.

Vote next Tuesday. The Democratic party may not be perfect, but at the moment it's the only tool we have to take back this country.

UPDATE: Who Should Apologize? (a political ad by Jamie Holly at Crooks and Liars)

 

John Kerry and sound bites

The recent John Kerry brouhaha is symptomatic of several major problems in American politics.

Here's what Kerry said:
If you make the most of it, if you study hard and do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well, if you don't, you get stuck in Iraq.
Here's what he meant to say:
I can't overstress the importance of a great education. Do you know where you end up if you don't study, if you aren't smart, if you're intellectually lazy? You end up getting us stuck in a war in Iraq. Just Ask President Bush.
Problem one: Republicans lie, and the media let them get away with it. It was fairly obvious from the context, and far more obvious from Kerry's history, that he did not intend to insult the troops. But George W. Bush, and Tony Snow, and John McCain, and even (groan) a few Democrats are insisting that Kerry should apologize for insulting the troops.

They know better. They are deliberately quoting Kerry out of context. They are lying. They're lying because they think (perhaps correctly, alas) that it will energize the Republican base, and make next week's election just a little less disastrous for them. They're lying because they care more about staying in power than about honor.

Problem two: Democrats don't deal well with this. Kerry has responded with entirely appropriate outrage to this whole thing (which is an improvement over his relative lack of response to the swift boat liars) -- but the original sound bite is still out there, and that's still what people will remember about this. What he should be doing, in my humble opinion, is telling the joke correctly at every possible opportunity. It's a pretty good joke; it's not sidesplittingly funny, but it makes a very good point about George W. Bush's incompetence and the tragic consequences of it. But nobody is hearing it. I only know what he meant to say because a couple of bloggers happened to mention it.

Here it is again:
I can't overstress the importance of a great education. Do you know where you end up if you don't study, if you aren't smart, if you're intellectually lazy? You end up getting us stuck in a war in Iraq. Just Ask President Bush.
That should be the sound bite we're hearing, and we're not hearing it because John Kerry isn't out there saying it.

The same thing happened during the 2004 campaign, with his infamous “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it.” He later acknowledged that it was "one of those inarticulate moments", but he completely blew the opportunity to explain what he actually meant. He favored the $87 billion in funding; he voted for a bill that would provide it by cutting back some of Bush's tax cuts, and against another bill that would provide it by increasing the deficit. It's a simple story, but Kerry never actually told it.

(Or maybe he did, but it wasn't a good enough sound bite.)

And, of course, the so-called "liberal" media are part of the problem. The root of this whole thing was that John Kerry (who isn't even running for office) botched a line in a live speech. How often has George W. Bush done the same thing? When Bush flubs a line, we laugh at him; in some cases, the media even correct his errors for him when they quote him. When a Democrat flubs a line, the wingnuts pretend to believe he meant exactly what he said, and to be shocked, shocked, that someone would say such a thing.

So let's apply the same standard to the President. Take a look at this:
In this clip, the President argues that OBGYN's are being denied the opportunity to practice their "love with women all over this country". I can only conclude that the President is in favor of OBGYN's sexually assaulting women and therefore committing malpractice. I am outraged and disgusted and the President owes the women of America an apology and I am calling for an immediate investigation.
Let's be fair. Let's be "balanced".

Or, better yet, let's be honest.

UPDATE: And now the top headline on cnn.com is "Kerry: I personally apologize".

Sigh.

UPDATE 2: Above, I wrote that "Republicans lie". Obviously, not all Republicans lie. It just seems that most of the ones currently in power do so.

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